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New fatality data released
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) National Center for Statistics and Analysis has released new fatality data for 2009. While it’s still hard to fathom that more than 33,000 people were killed in our streets last year, the trend is in the right direction. The total number of traffic fatalities dropped 9.7% from 37,423 to 33,808. Cyclist fatalities dropped somewhat faster: a 12% decline from 718 in 2008 to 630 in 2009. One disappointment is that pedestrian fatalities declined at a slower rate than the others, lowering 7.3% from 4,414 to 4,092.
It’s encouraging that fatalities are down, but what was the cause? NHTSA published a table that includes a line for the fatality rate, showing fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles travels. This line shows that fatalities are down, despite a slight increase in vehicle miles traveled, VMT. (This paragraph was edited to correct an earlier error.)
So, what about cyclists? Once again we run in data collection problems. While the DOT carefully estimates auto VMT, we are still stuck with feeble data on bicycling rates — and none have been released for 2009. Bicycle commuting jumped up in 2008. Was that a spike or did the trend continue into 2009? If the increase continued, then the fatality rate would have lowered and that would be good news. Stay tuned for the future release of the American Community Survey commuter data for 2009.
Injuries, based on estimates from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES), declined for pedestrians to a statistically significant degree, but not for cyclists. So why are we seeing a decrease in cyclist fatalities but not in injuries?
Darren Flusche
League Policy Director
Flusche joined the League in April 2009 and has a B.A. in history from Syracuse University and a Masters of Public Administration with a concentration in public policy analysis from New York University.
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September 9th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
34,000 is still a lot of people, but the trend is definitely in the right direction. Thanks for the heads up, Darren.
September 10th, 2010 at 11:36 am
Not too surprising. Speculating from the armchair, the vast majority of reportable injuries are crashes by the cyclist sans motor vehicle. The vast majority of cyclist fatalities involve a motor vehicle. So if motor vehicles are traveling less or behaving more safely for some other reason, we would see an improvement in cycling fatalities. As for injuries, some of it may be “safer cars”. But I suspect that as cycling becomes more popular, that there is an inherant difference in new cyclists in that they are relatively more risk adverse and consequently take less risks.
September 10th, 2010 at 11:59 am
Here’s a likely one-word answer to Darren’s closing question above: BIKEWAYS.
September 10th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
If new inexperienced riders are being added to the bicycling mode, and if they are on bikeways, we might see a lot of minor to moderate injuries but fewer deaths.
Are the injury data coming from sources that would accurately reflect the mode split between bikeway riders and road riders? My hunch would be similar to Allan’s although he doesn’t elaborate. A greater mode split to bikeways might result in less exposure to motor vehicle related injuries but more bike-bike, bike-ped, or bike-object crashes (although we don’t know this–serious bikeway injuries may occur where separate facilities cross roads).
All conjecture, of course. Grist for the mill. Darren, you better write a grant…
September 10th, 2010 at 7:23 pm
The best explanation I’ve heard so far for the overall fatalities decline is that discretionary driving is down due to the economy. Many of these trips take place at night or under the influence of alcohol(or both). This would help explain the sharp (16&) decline in motorcyclist fatalities.
@ Geof: Yes, cyclist injuries could be an outlier because so many of them involve no other roadway user.
September 11th, 2010 at 10:28 pm
@Chris: I don’t think that “discretionary driving” is the cause of a decline in motorcyclist fatalities at all. Motorcyclist deaths are, statistically, VERY UN-like cyclist fatalities. 50% of motorcyclist fatalities each year are single vehicle crashes – basically driver error, usually in curves. Motorcycle safety experts have been pushing safety and education for the past several years. Motorcycle deaths have been up every year for 10 yrs – this decline is great news for riders. It is probably related to better riding skills, or fewer bad riders!
September 13th, 2010 at 10:48 am
Fewer bad riders, aka, the Darwin Effect on remaining riders?
I read somewhere that a lot of older farts like me have been returning to motorcycles after a long hiatus, or getting into it for the first time. Returning riders probably don’t have the reflexes we recall having as youth and bikes are bigger and faster so we need to be careful.
Newbies have no clue of the power and ability to get one’s self in trouble on an 1100 cc bike. I recall the time I swapped bikes with a buddy back in college. I had a well-mannered Honda CB-450 and he had one of the first Kawasaki 500 cc two-strokes, which had a narrow and frightful power band a little like being strapped to a booster rocket. Cranking to full throttle, I almost slid off the back of the bike.
We need good motorcycle education just as we need good bicyclist education. Because on two wheels, shit can happen and you are the crumple zone.
We brought up someone from one of the national moto education organizations to give a moto safety seminar in our industrial safety division at LANL to go along with my bicycle safety seminars. Both were well attended.
September 13th, 2010 at 12:27 pm
“This line shows that fatalities are down even when reduced VMT is taken into account. ”
Reduced VMT? What reduced VMT? The report states the opposite: “Overall 2009 VMT INCREASED by 0.2 percent from 2008 VMT from 2,973,509 million to 2,979,321 million.”
It’s a small increase, but VMT was not reduced.
The less discretionary driving explanation does not account for lack of reduction in VMT, unless it includes a commensurate increase (+ .2%) in non-discretionary driving. But if true, it supports my personal theory that crashes are more likely in light traffic than in heavy traffic (when non-discretionary driving is more likely) because I believe drivers pay better attention in heavier traffic.
Allen’s BIKEWAYS explanation does not account for the non-bike reductions, including the 25% drop in fatalities involving large trucks. Besides, the relatively small increase in bikeway miles in any one year cannot explain such a significant change.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if a drop in driving by young people isn’t related to the overall decline in fatalities.
@ sergei Very interesting stat on the 25% drop in fatalities involving large trucks. Clearly, that’s recession-influenced. There are also suggestions that regulations regarding service hours are making truck drivers safer drivers.
I acknowledge that the overall VMT stat works against my argument…But, as you note, not all VMT are created equal.
@ steve Steve, you note that “Motorcycle deaths have been up every year for 10 yrs ” and then suggest a one-year drop of 16% is due to education…All of a sudden, the motorcyclist population became dramatcially more skilled, more careful?! Hm-m-m. No, I’d suggest less discretionary riding (ie, fewer weekend trips involving the spending of money that people no longer have) is a better explanation.
Good discussion! There’s no single explanation. Could be a variety of factors at-work: Reduced truck travel due to the recession; More of the safer commuting-type trips; Less discretionary driving by poorer, less skilled drivers, young people, motorcyclists and other at-risk populations.
September 14th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
I doubt that education is the only reason why motorcycle deaths are down… motorcycles are just such a different animal than bicycles that there’s just no comparison.
In the m/c world, unlicensed drivers are a big problem. Operating a m/c is more akin to flying a plane than driving a car. The margin of error is about the same. In addition, many many people hop on without getting licensed or trained properly.
HALF of m/c fatalities are single vehicle crashes – people losing control. It would be good to see the 2009 stats on that.
Also, 1/3 of m/c fatalities involve a driver w/ a BAC >0.08%. It would be good to see if those figures held as well in 2009.
It could just be fewer miles ridden, lesser risk. But, with gas prices up, folks tend to commute by bike rather than car, so I would expect MORE miles in tough economic times… again, would be good to see actual data…
Demographics of m/c riders has changed in the past 10 yrs – riders are, on avg, 10 yrs older than they were… assuming more experienced? Maybe, maybe not. In the past 10 yrs a LOT of guys spent a LOT of money buying big big “Bar Bikes” that they ride on the weekends for a few miles…
Bike Demographics have changed too with 1000cc bikes leading the way. You can buy some of the most powerful bikes ever made for the street for $20,000 or less. A comparable car would cost $250,000.00! These are HUGE powerful bikes… some will do 170mph out of the box w/o modifications. An inexperienced rider can get into trouble with one quick flick of the throttle.
Bottom line, it’s great to see some lower numbers after 10 years of numbers that got bigger every year…
Steve Magas
September 14th, 2010 at 6:03 pm
It has been surmised on the SDCBC list that the across-the-board improvements might be due to the economy and higher gas prices causing drivers to slow down a bit. Even small decreases in speed can make big difference in terms of time to react and resultant force at impact.
I like that explanation the best so far.
September 22nd, 2010 at 4:59 pm
60 mph = 88 feet per second. Every 6 mph drop means cars are going 8.8 fps slower… giving everyone more time/space to stop. Great article “You Only Hit That Car If You Don’t Quite Stop In Time”
http://www.msgroup.org/Tip.aspx?Num=031&Set=001-034
September 22nd, 2010 at 8:36 pm
All the stats in the world don’t account for idiots like the one in Maryland who ran over Natasha Pettigrew, then drove 4 MILES with a BICYCLE LODGED UNDER HER CADDY SUV, parked in the garage and…eventually…. called 911…sad sad sad
From the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/21/AR2010092105239.html