From the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/21/AR2010092105239.html

I like that explanation the best so far.

In the m/c world, unlicensed drivers are a big problem. Operating a m/c is more akin to flying a plane than driving a car. The margin of error is about the same. In addition, many many people hop on without getting licensed or trained properly.

HALF of m/c fatalities are single vehicle crashes – people losing control. It would be good to see the 2009 stats on that.

Also, 1/3 of m/c fatalities involve a driver w/ a BAC >0.08%. It would be good to see if those figures held as well in 2009.

It could just be fewer miles ridden, lesser risk. But, with gas prices up, folks tend to commute by bike rather than car, so I would expect MORE miles in tough economic times… again, would be good to see actual data…

Demographics of m/c riders has changed in the past 10 yrs – riders are, on avg, 10 yrs older than they were… assuming more experienced? Maybe, maybe not. In the past 10 yrs a LOT of guys spent a LOT of money buying big big “Bar Bikes” that they ride on the weekends for a few miles…

Bike Demographics have changed too with 1000cc bikes leading the way. You can buy some of the most powerful bikes ever made for the street for $20,000 or less. A comparable car would cost $250,000.00! These are HUGE powerful bikes… some will do 170mph out of the box w/o modifications. An inexperienced rider can get into trouble with one quick flick of the throttle.

Bottom line, it’s great to see some lower numbers after 10 years of numbers that got bigger every year…

Steve Magas

@ sergei Very interesting stat on the 25% drop in fatalities involving large trucks. Clearly, that’s recession-influenced. There are also suggestions that regulations regarding service hours are making truck drivers safer drivers.

I acknowledge that the overall VMT stat works against my argument…But, as you note, not all VMT are created equal.

@ steve Steve, you note that “Motorcycle deaths have been up every year for 10 yrs ” and then suggest a one-year drop of 16% is due to education…All of a sudden, the motorcyclist population became dramatcially more skilled, more careful?! Hm-m-m. No, I’d suggest less discretionary riding (ie, fewer weekend trips involving the spending of money that people no longer have) is a better explanation.

Good discussion! There’s no single explanation. Could be a variety of factors at-work: Reduced truck travel due to the recession; More of the safer commuting-type trips; Less discretionary driving by poorer, less skilled drivers, young people, motorcyclists and other at-risk populations.

Reduced VMT? What reduced VMT? The report states the opposite: “Overall 2009 VMT INCREASED by 0.2 percent from 2008 VMT from 2,973,509 million to 2,979,321 million.”

It’s a small increase, but VMT was not reduced.

The less discretionary driving explanation does not account for lack of reduction in VMT, unless it includes a commensurate increase (+ .2%) in non-discretionary driving. But if true, it supports my personal theory that crashes are more likely in light traffic than in heavy traffic (when non-discretionary driving is more likely) because I believe drivers pay better attention in heavier traffic.

Allen’s BIKEWAYS explanation does not account for the non-bike reductions, including the 25% drop in fatalities involving large trucks. Besides, the relatively small increase in bikeway miles in any one year cannot explain such a significant change.

I read somewhere that a lot of older farts like me have been returning to motorcycles after a long hiatus, or getting into it for the first time. Returning riders probably don’t have the reflexes we recall having as youth and bikes are bigger and faster so we need to be careful.

Newbies have no clue of the power and ability to get one’s self in trouble on an 1100 cc bike. I recall the time I swapped bikes with a buddy back in college. I had a well-mannered Honda CB-450 and he had one of the first Kawasaki 500 cc two-strokes, which had a narrow and frightful power band a little like being strapped to a booster rocket. Cranking to full throttle, I almost slid off the back of the bike.

We need good motorcycle education just as we need good bicyclist education. Because on two wheels, shit can happen and you are the crumple zone.

We brought up someone from one of the national moto education organizations to give a moto safety seminar in our industrial safety division at LANL to go along with my bicycle safety seminars. Both were well attended.

@ Geof: Yes, cyclist injuries could be an outlier because so many of them involve no other roadway user.

Are the injury data coming from sources that would accurately reflect the mode split between bikeway riders and road riders? My hunch would be similar to Allan’s although he doesn’t elaborate. A greater mode split to bikeways might result in less exposure to motor vehicle related injuries but more bike-bike, bike-ped, or bike-object crashes (although we don’t know this–serious bikeway injuries may occur where separate facilities cross roads).

All conjecture, of course. Grist for the mill. Darren, you better write a grant…