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How to misunderstand data
To say that data from a new report by the Governor’s Highway Safety Association have been “misunderstood” is to put it so kindly as to do a disservice to the word.
The report, Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State: 2010 preliminary data, examines preliminary fatality data that show that pedestrian fatalities did not fall during the first six months of 2010, compared to the first six months of 2009. In fact, there were seven more pedestrians killed nation-wide in that period in 2010 than in 2009, a 0.4 percent increase. This is news — not because the data reveal any kind of “spike,” as is being reported – but because motorist and bicyclist fatalities have been decreasing in recent years. The GHSA report says, “In contrast, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA’s) early estimates are that overall traffic fatalities dropped 8% during this period.”
However, the facts, clearly laid out in the actual report, have not stopped some serious hyper-ventilating about the dangers of walking our country’s streets. The First Lady has even been dragged into it. The Washington Examiner published the following paragraphs:
First lady Michelle Obama’s campaign to get people to exercise outdoors might be a factor in an increase in the number of pedestrian deaths during the first half of last year, according to the Governors Highway Safety Association…
But the “get moving” movement, led by Obama’s “Let’s Move” campaign to eliminate childhood obesity, could be to blame, Harsha told The Washington Examiner.
“There’s an emphasis these days to getting fit, and I think people doing that are more exposed to risk [of getting hit by a vehicle],” said Harsha, who conceded to having no scientific evidence that the Let’s Move campaign has led to an increase in walkers and runners, or deaths.
This angle was picked up by at least one other paper. Harsha says she was misquoted.
For all of the good work Michelle Obama is doing to fight against childhood obesity and to encourage people to be more active, I think it’s safe to say that she is a distraction in this story. It is, however, a fair question to ask why pedestrian fatalities are not declining on pace with motorized fatalities. There is probably not one single explanation. According to the Financial Management Information System, only six states (CA, FL, NJ, OH, VA, WA) obligated federal Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP) funds to projects categorized as bicycle and pedestrians safety. Perhaps we need to re-examine how states are allocating safety funds. It is also true that Vehicle Miles Traveled are going back up. This doesn’t explain why motorized fatalities are not also rising, but it highlights the fact that people walking are more vulnerable to distracted, drunk, and speeding drivers than people in cars and trucks are.
Much has been made over very little. We’ll have to see if there is even an increase in pedestrian fatalities by the time all of the 2010 data are released.
Darren Flusche
League Policy Director
Flusche joined the League in April 2009 and has a B.A. in history from Syracuse University and a Masters of Public Administration with a concentration in public policy analysis from New York University.
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January 20th, 2011 at 7:14 pm
I think we should push for a nation wide campaign to “Start Seeing People”. Not biker, motorycists, and walkers but the people. People that are vulnerable because they are not surrounded by the modern engineering wonder that cars are these days. Drivers are very safe in their cars but they need to realize people not in cars are much more vulnerable.
January 21st, 2011 at 1:37 am
Peter, I second that! Humanizing the road experience and recognizing our streets as the commons they are are should be top priority. From that will flow civility, equity, efficiency, safety and prioritization. Decency and common sense don’t seem to get nearly enough play these days…
January 24th, 2011 at 6:50 pm
I suspect that all one can say about those numbers is there was “no change” within statistical uncertainty. Sounds to me like some people are using the data uncritically for their political posturing. Not at all a new thing.
January 26th, 2011 at 2:00 am
I am starting my project to review EVERY fatal bicycle crash in Ohio. I am gathering the police reports, photographs, witness statements, accident reconstruction reports – whatever I can get – and reviewing the data independently. The hope is to show how SAFE cycling is and to try to see and track common patterns, themes, problems and mistakes. I am going to start with 2009 [18 deaths] and 2010 [9] with the hope of releasing the report by May 1 or the Ride of Silence.
you can follow along as I update at http://www.OhioBikeLawyer.com
Steve Magas
January 26th, 2011 at 3:58 am
Just wanted to say aweseome theme and great post.I like how you wright. Ever thought about freelance writing?
January 26th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Thank you, Steve. Is OBF or someone funding this, or are you doing it yourself?
January 27th, 2011 at 2:48 pm
It’s irresponsible journalism, in my opinion, to try to link a campaign to reduce obesity and improve health in this country to a minute uptick in fatalities of pedestrians on/along our roads. If there is anything this country desperately needs in the fight against the deteriorating health of our citizens and a rising healthcare burden to our society, it is better eating habits and more exercise. And, if we want to reduce fatalities we need to impose higher sanctions and penalties on irresponsible driving and the other real causes of pedestrian/bicyclist deaths…not try to manufacture some obscure theoretical connection between a national fitness campaign and some other statistic that that happens to go in an unfavorable direction in the subsequent year.
In Arizona, for example, if anyone looks at the real data this linkage cannot be supported. Most deaths of pedestrians either involve (1) mid-block crossings, (2) after dark, (3) impairment, and/or (4) inattentive drivers on arterials where the speed limits are typically above 40 mph. And, our legal consequences of killing a bicyclist or pedestrian while driving unimpaired are usually less than consuming two beers and getting caught driving…but injuring nobody. (I’m not advocating lower penalties for DUI, I’m just saying that killing a pedestrian or bicyclist by driving irresponsibly should have more consequences than $500 and a couple of points on your license).
The Coaltion of Arizona Bicylists is embarking on a major push to address the “worst in class” effort of our DOT to utilize HSIP funds for the intended purpose. Old School roadway engineers have been in charge of these funds in AZ, and it’s high time that we call them out and demand that they start thinking about saving lives instead of not using available federal funds or reallocting them to construction of additional freeway lanes.
February 1st, 2011 at 12:06 am
Funding? huh?
No, I am funding this with my own money and my own time. On the downside, it’s slightly costly and time consuming. On the UP side, I am in control of everything.
So far, a very interesting study is developing. In 2010, we only had 10 deaths. 2 bike path/roadway intersections. 2 sidewalk riders hit in crosswalks. A couple high profile crashes, including Michelle Kazlausky, who was killed on Pelotonia and Jimmy Chapple, a popular avid cyclist in northern Ohio.
Ohio had fewer cycling fatalities in 2010 than in many prior years. Compared to 18 in 2009, a significant drop.
I’m hoping to track trends, provide advice for avoiding fatal crashes, track criminal cases and discuss media coverage…
whew…
how do I hook into some that funding you mentioned????
;^)
Steve Magas